Forecasts

Forecasts give you a 5-day outlook of expected energy production for every plant you can access, so you can plan operations, anticipate revenue, and spot a plant that is about to underperform before it costs you money.

Forecast Concept

A forecast combines each plant's recent measured behavior with the local weather forecast to estimate how much energy it will generate over the next five days. The estimate is grounded in physics — irradiance, temperature, and a clear-sky model of the site — rather than statistical guesswork. There are no opaque machine-learning predictions: every figure traces back to weather inputs and the plant's own observed performance.

Two complementary views are available:

Portfolio overview — a card grid showing the 5-day energy range and weather for each accessible plant at a glance.
Per-plant detail — a chart for a single plant with daily expected energy, a clear-sky reference, and hour-by-hour power for each of the five days.

Info

Forecasts cover renewable production over a 5-day window only. They are not long-term statistical projections or annual yield estimates — for accounting-grade production history use Reports.

What the Forecast Delivers

Portfolio Overview

For each plant you have access to, the overview provides a daily forecast for the next five days:

Expected energy — a mean value with a high and low band (in Wh), so you see the likely range, not just a single number.
Standard deviation — a one-sigma spread that quantifies how confident the estimate is for that plant.
Performance ratio — the expected ratio of actual to theoretical production, carried into the forecast from the plant's measured behavior.
Daily weather — roughly ten weather fields per day (including precipitation, snow, wind, temperature, and a weather code), so you can see why a given day's output is expected to be high or low.

By default the estimate is built from the plant's behavior over the last 45 days; you can widen or narrow that sample window.

Unreliable Plants Are Dropped

If a plant's forecast is too uncertain (its energy estimate varies by more than 50%), it is excluded from the overview rather than shown with a misleading number. If none of your plants produce a reliable forecast, the overview returns empty. This keeps the card grid trustworthy — a plant you see has a forecast you can act on.

Per-Plant Detail

Open a single plant to see a richer five-day picture:

Daily expected energy — the production estimate for each of the next five days.
Clear-sky reference — the theoretical production the plant would reach under perfect clear-sky conditions, plotted alongside the forecast so you can read the gap between ideal and expected.
Hourly power curve — power samples through each day, fixed-scaled against the plant's peak alternating-current capacity so the chart shape is directly comparable day to day.

If a plant is inactive or has no data yet, its days are returned as zero rather than as an error.

How Forecasts Are Built

The forecast rests on two inputs and a physical model that ties them together.

Weather Data

Forecasts use the local weather forecast for each site from the German Weather Service (Deutscher Wetterdienst, DWD) via Open-Meteo, at hourly resolution across the 5-day window. Because the forecast is geo-specific to each plant's location, neighboring plants can show meaningfully different outlooks. See Connected Microservices for how external weather data reaches the platform.

Physical Model

Expected production is derived from first principles — a clear-sky model of the site, the plant's installed capacity, and its recently measured performance — not from a learned statistical model. This is the same physics-based foundation used by the Digital Twin for clear-sky and performance analysis, which is why the forecast's clear-sky reference lines up with the monitoring view.

Forecast Applications

The 5-day window is built for near-term operational and commercial decisions:

Operational planning — schedule site visits and maintenance during expected low-production days.
Storage coordination — plan charging and discharging around the expected production curve.
Grid and market coordination — anticipate feed-in and align with grid operations.
Revenue anticipation — translate expected production into expected income alongside your Market & Tariffs configuration.

Where Forecasts Show Up

The portfolio overview feeds the dashboard card grid; the per-plant detail drives the plant's forecast chart. Both respect your access — you only ever see forecasts for plants you are permitted to view.

Reports — accounting-grade production and financial reports for completed periods
Digital Twin — the physics and clear-sky analysis the forecast builds on
Market & Tariffs — turn expected production into expected revenue
KPI Dashboard — where the forecast overview surfaces alongside live performance
Real-Time Monitoring — the measured data that grounds each forecast